Че то бестолку. =DJ 2nd UPDATE: German May Retail Sales Real Adj +1.3% On Month
(Adds Bundesbank data, further analysts' comment and comment from retailers' association, background.)
By Emese Bartha
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
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German Retail Sales ! !
May Apr ! Consensus: +0.5% MM!
on month +1.3% -0.6%r ! !
on year +0.7% -0.2%r ! Actual: +1.3% MM!
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FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--German retail sales rose more than twice faster than expected in May after two months of decline, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Tuesday, but analysts say the outlook remains murky.
Retail sales in Europe's largest economy rose 1.3% on the month in May, according to calendar year and seasonally-adjusted terms, the statistics office said. Retail sales rose 0.7% on the year in real terms, it added.
Economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey had forecast a 0.5% rise on the month.
The statistics office revised the April data to a monthly fall of 0.6% and an annual fall of 0.2%, from declines of 1.7% on the month and 1.0% on the year.
Separately, the Bundesbank said retail sales in April, including vehicle and gas station sales, rose 2.6% on the month, but declined 0.3% on the year.
The data were more benign than expected but analysts say the big picture, namely consumers' hesitance to spend because of new highs in inflation, hasn't changed.
"In the second quarter, at best, a stagnation in consumption can be expected," said Matthias Rubisch, an economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. He added that the second half of the year will bring a moderate rise, at best.
The Association of German Retailers, or HDE, said the rise in sales in May must be regarded in the context of the weaker sales in April. Hubertus Pellengahr, spokesman for HDE, told Dow Jones Newswires, that sales in May made up for those sales that didn't take place due to bad weather in April.
"The elevated level of inflation, which reached a new 15-year high of 3.3% year-on-year in June, is a heavy burden to the purchasing power of private households," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit in Munich.
Germany's preliminary inflation figure of 3.3% for June was driven by rising energy and food prices.
"Despite the continuing labor market upswing and higher wage agreements, this has led to a pronounced deterioration in consumer climate recently," Koch added.
The outlook for restrained spending was reflected recently when German market research group GfK published its consumer climate index for July which fell to 3.9 points, it lowest level since December 2005.
Retail sales in the first five months of the year were down 0.4% in real terms, the statistics office said.
Average spending in the first two months of the second quarter was still below the first quarter's average and points toward a significant slowdown in overall gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, said Stuart Bennett, strategist at Calyon Credit Agricole CIB in London.
German Deputy Economics Minister Walther Otremba said recently that economic growth in the second quarter could contract, as a correction following 1.5% growth in the first quarter, but the average of the two quarters is still likely to show growth.
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck confirmed Tuesday that economic growth in Germany in 2008 will reach at least the 1.7% forecast by the government.
May (year-on-year)
Total retail sales +0.7%
(excluding vehicles and gas stations)
Food, beverages and tobacco -3.0%
Non-food +3.4%
of which
-Clothing +13.9%
-Household goods and
do-it-yourself +4.1%
-Other specialized retail +5.9%
-Drugs, cosmetics -0.5%
-Other, non-specialized retail +2.9%
-Mail order -3.1%
The data are based on figures from seven German states that account for about 76% of total sales, the Federal Statistics Office said. The data don't include car sales and sales at gas stations.
